This research investigates how private higher education providers in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region respond to currency devaluation shocks, specifically in pricing educational services, sustaining pedagogical quality, and retaining human capital, while leveraging trust and social bonds. The project seeks to quantify an innovative, dynamic pricing approach that consists of heterogenous, contingent combinations of the highly unstable local currency in 3 countries (Lebanon, Turkey, & Egypt) and the relatively stable US dollar.

Led by Patrick Mardini at the Lebanese Institute for Market Studies, the team will collect data from private and public providers across the region. Data will include institutional variables (e.g. fee structures, student and staff size, alumni networks, accreditations), student indicators (e.g. demographics, graduation and retention rates, employability), and educator metrics (e.g. degrees, academic experience, scholarly and research quality). Both qualitative and quantitative data will be gathered through interviews, surveys, institutional websites, platforms like Google Scholar and LinkedIn, and government databases.

Using advanced data modeling techniques such as local projections of dynamic pricing response to currency devaluation, the team will assess how tuition strategies shift under devaluation. They hypothesize that contingent contracts/pricing (i.e., payments in a mix of local currency and US dollars) can help offset volatility and stabilize access for students. The impact of deviations and optimal pricing strategies for ensuring continued access to affordable, high-quality education will be explored. The analysis will also examine how university/student/faculty relations are impacted and how established universities' adoption of contingencies influences the broader higher education environment.

Findings will be shared through two peer-reviewed journal articles, an international academic conference, a policy paper, and a convening of academics and policymakers. The policy paper will offer recommendations for designing a voucher system to increase access to private higher education.